The Oligopoly Dominates
As many of you know, I am a fan of Substack, which comes as no surprise to any of you, considering I am writing and delivering it to you, dear readers, via that very same platform. I love how I can discover new writers and newsletters that force me to rethink a topic or learn a unique point of view. This week, I found one that is no exception, and I want to discuss it this week. It comes from Adam Mastroianni, an experimental psychologist who writes a newsletter called Experimental History. Recently, he wrote one entitled, "Pop Culture Has Become an Oligopoly,' which offers a fascinating take on a topic we've discussed here: the complete lack of original entertainment. You can read the whole piece here, but I want to focus on what he says about movies and content in general.
According to Mastroianni, in 2021, an odd year for movies and the culture at large, Free Guy was the only original release that wasn't a reboot, remake, sequel, spin-off, or cinematic universe expansion. There were only two in 2020's Top 10 and none in 2019. The fact that there were no originals in the top 10 in 2020 and 2019, doesn't mean they were none to see. We all know that 2020 was hampered by that little bug but for 2019, it could just be that no one wanted to see them. Mastroianni does present a compelling case that it isn't just the usual excuses (greedy movie studios, dumb moviegoers, etc.) that have caused this to happen not just in the movies but across all pop culture. He describes it as a shift from winners take-some to winners take-all. Hence the use of oligopoly in the title of his piece. He hammers home the point even more after you take a look at this graph:
As you can see, he makes a convincing case, and I encourage you all to read it, but I do want to focus on one primary reason this is happening, particularly with movies and content in general.
One of the biggest problems is the overwhelming amount of content choices that your average consumer faces on any given day. John Landgraf, the head of FX Networks, coined the term "Peak TV" to describe the glorious television renaissance occurring a few years back. I think we've now arrived at Peak Everything, where it has gone from an embarrassment of riches to an overwhelming cascade of just too much. Given all the choices we're facing, is it any wonder that people are going with what they know. Don't get me wrong, some of it can create great content. The expansion of the Stars Wars universe is one good example (and I can't wait for Obi-Wan.) One bright spot of the "Great Netflix Reset" is that it has shifted the streamers at least to start focusing on quality over quantity which is never a bad thing, but that isn't going to solve the winners take all problem. So what's the solution?
Mastroianni postulates that all of this creates cultural anemia that is sapping us of our imagination and robbing us of the ability to experience new worlds. He's certainly not wrong about that. His solution is to look for funky movies or TV shows that may not be getting the needed attention. However, how will we find these little treasures unless we know where to look? I think that's where marketers come in by helping consumers find those little gems. That is our specialty at VCB, but I can't do it alone. Those of us in the industry need to look for those projects that require attention and deserve it. Studios and streamers also need to spend more smartly, as Kevin Goetz suggests, by looking hard at data and not overspending when it's not necessary. Thus, the original projects will seem less risky. It's the only way we can shift the paradigm back to winners, take some and end the oligopoly that dominates our pop culture.
Avatar: The Way of Meh
Full disclosure: I worked on the first Avatar, and it was as frustrating and frightening as you can imagine, never knowing if this would be my last film at Fox. Well, the flick was a hit, and the success of that film was a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Well, after years of anticipation, they've finally released the first teaser, and I have to say, I was...underwhelmed. Here's a look at the teaser for those of you who haven't seen it yet:
Avatar: The Way of Water | Official Teaser Trailer - YouTube
I'm not sure what I was expecting, but the footage didn't surprise me as much as I thought it would. It's been nearly 13 years since the original was released, and I guess I was hoping for some dramatic footage that would show me that Cameron has raised the bar yet again after all this time, but that sensation never came. It all felt so familiar to me. Now, I'm never going to bet against James Cameron, mainly since he's delivered many times before. Perhaps, he has a trick up his sleeve that we haven't seen yet, but it's been a looooong time since 2009. The original audience isn't as loyal as a Marvel or Star Wars audience, and many people don't remember the original. I would recommend that if Disney does have a card up its sleeve, they get to it sooner rather than later. Otherwise, this could become Cameron's first big whiff in an otherwise phenomenal career.
Pages from the Commonplace Book
This week, we're sticking with my good friend and fellow Pennsylvanian Benjamin Franklin:
"Great Beauty, great strength, and great riches are really and truly of no great use, a right heart exceeds all."
I've recently joined Twitter to promote this newsletter, VCB, and the podcast, but man, it is a dumpster fire of rage and stupidity. I'll admit it is difficult to resist the temptation to jump in on the latest argument, but I often go back to this quote from Ben Franklin to quiet that urge. If only others would lean on the wisdom of those who came before to fight that Twitter finger, how better off we all would be.
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